The Elliott Wave Theory Explained | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (2024)

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The Elliott Wave Theory Explained | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (2)

quantitative-methods

27 Aug 2019

Elliott wave theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in late 1930s. His discovery changed the perception about stock market trading, which was thought to be chaotic and disorganized at the time. The theory revealed that trading, in fact, follows repetitive cycles.

Breaking down the Elliott Wave Theory

According to the Elliott wave theory, cycles that are repetitive and quite predictable can be observed in stock price movements. The movements can be categorized into two: motive waves and corrective waves. The former category refers to movements in the direction of the existing trend while the latter refers to movements against the trend. The two types, when combined, form the heartbeat of the Elliott wave theory. The theory actually discredits and runs against the efficient market hypothesis.

Elliott put forth the argument that market cycles could be traced back to outside influences coupled with the predominant psychology of market participants. Furthermore, he argued that behind the upward and downward swings exhibited by the market lay corresponding shifts in mass psychology, resulting in repetitive patterns. It is actually these patterns that were later categorized into the motive waves and the corrective ones.

Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Theory

  • Every action is followed by an equal and opposite reaction.
  • 5 waves move in the direction of the main market trend followed by 3 corrective waves.
  • A complete cycle is made up of a 5-3 move.
  • A 5-3 move breaks down into two subdivisions of the next wave.
  • The 5-3 pattern is observed throughout, although the duration of each may keep on changing.

The Elliott Wave Theory Explained | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (3)

In the figure above, the motive waves are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The three letters – x, y, and z – are corrective waves going againstthe global trend.

Fibonacci Sequence

Elliott’s work also linked market wave patterns to the Fibonacci sequence, which was developed by Leonardo Fibonacci in the 11th century. The Fibonacci sequence sets off with the numbers 0, 1, and 1 again. After this point, each subsequent number is the sum of the two prior numbers:

{0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, …}

Elliott found out that the ratio of the size of subsequent waves was, in fact, the Fibonacci ratio. The following are some of the most important ratios:

1/2 = 0.50;

2/3 = 0.6667;

3/5 = 0.6;

5/8 = 0.625; and

8/13 = 0.6154.

Elliott wave advances the belief that the above ratios are useful when estimating price movements and targets. For instance, a down leg can be 3/5 the size of an up leg. Using the same logic, a future price can be 8/13 of the current price.

A quick computation can confirm that as the numbers in the sequence get larger, their ratios converge at 0.618 and 1.618. These two are known as the magical numbers in the world of finance and can be used to predict future price targets.

Reading 56 LOS 56g:

Describe the key tenets of Elliott Wave Theory and the importance of Fibonacci numbers

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    A great curriculum provider. James sir explains the concept so well that rather than memorising it, you tend to intuitively understand and absorb them. Thank you ! Grateful I saw this at the right time for my CFA prep.

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    The Elliott Wave Theory Explained | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (2024)

    FAQs

    The Elliott Wave Theory Explained | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep? ›

    Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Theory

    What is the Elliott Wave Theory in simple words? ›

    The Elliott Wave Theory is a form of technical analysis that looks for recurrent long-term price patterns related to persistent changes in investor sentiment and psychology. The theory identifies impulse waves that set up a pattern and corrective waves that oppose the larger trend.

    How can you tell an Elliott wave 1? ›

    Identifying Wave 1 in Elliott Wave theory involves keen observation and analysis. Look for the following key aspects: Strong Impulse Movement: Wave 1 typically exhibits a strong, impulsive price movement in the direction of the emerging trend. Watch for decisive and noteworthy price shifts.

    What are the basics of Elliott waves? ›

    The Elliott wave principle, or Elliott wave theory, is a form of technical analysis that financial traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology and price levels, such as highs and lows, by looking for patterns in prices.

    How to count Elliott waves correctly? ›

    Where the impulse wave had a general structure count of 5-3-5-3-5, the ending diagonal has a structure count of 3-3-3-3-3. All five of the waves of an ending diagonal break down to only three waves each, indicating exhaustion of the larger degree trend.

    What are the three rules of the Elliott wave? ›

    3 Cardinal Rules of the Elliott Wave Theory
    • Rule Number #1: Wave 3 can NEVER be the shortest impulse wave.
    • Rule Number #2: Wave 2 can NEVER go beyond the start of Wave 1.
    • Rule Number #3: Wave 4 can NEVER cross in the same price area as Wave 1.

    What is the logic behind Elliott Wave Theory? ›

    The theory

    Elliott believed that every action is followed by a reaction. Thus, for every impulsive move, there will be a corrective one. The first five waves form the impulsive move, moving in the direction of the main trend. The subsequent three waves provide the corrective waves.

    How do you trade Elliott Wave for beginners? ›

    To trade Elliott waves, you first determine whether your market is in a bull or bear trend, and then whether it is in the motive or corrective phase of the pattern. From there, you can work out which wave the market is currently in and make predictions about where it might head next.

    What is the best indicator to use with Elliott Wave? ›

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another indicator that is helpful alongside the Elliott Wave Theory as it can be used to measure the strength of the trend and to identify potential reversals.

    What is the triangle rule Elliott Wave? ›

    Triangles are a correction five-wave pattern (marked as A-B-C-D-E), which is divided into five types. This pattern is formed in a position prior to the final wave in an impulse or a correction. For example, a triangle could be formed in a wave four in an impulse or wave B in a zigzag.

    How accurate is Elliott Wave Theory? ›

    That will rarely provide an accurate analysis of market sentiment, and when most of the projections based upon this type of “analysis” fail, one can now understand why. Many also take issue with the fact that Elliott Wave analysis suggests you maintain both a primary analysis, as well as an alternative analysis.

    What is the purpose of the Elliott wave? ›

    Elliott waves are used in technical analysis to determine price movements. Elliott's Wave Theory mainly comprises two kinds of waves – motive (impulse waves) and corrective waves. A motive wave consists of five waves – three impulse waves and two retrace waves.

    What is the wave theory in simple words? ›

    A simple way to answer is to say that light is a type of wave that causes objects to be visible to human eyes. The sun produces light, and that light bounces off objects and into our eyes. This makes it so that we can see things, because the brain can interpret that light and tell us what's out there.

    What is Dow theory in simple words? ›

    The Dow Theory attempts to identify the primary trend a market is in. It is comprised of three primary trends, each made up of secondary and minor trends. The theory assumes that the market already has knowledge of every possible factor and that prices reflect current information.

    What is the Elliott wave pattern rule? ›

    The Elliott wave zigzag rules are essential for understanding and identifying this formation in market trends. The main rule is the '5-3-5' sequence. The first wave, 'A', is made up of five smaller ones, followed by wave 'B' consisting of three smaller ones, and finally, wave 'C' with five smaller waves.

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